Journalists wake up to the power of prediction markets – Nieman Journalism Lab at Harvard
“Your audience collectively knows much more than you do.”
Will Twitter survive Elon Musk? Readers are Googling this question and reporters and columnists are working hard to provide an answer. But journalists are neglecting one of the most promising sources for answering it: prediction markets and forecasting platforms.
Prediction markets have been around in one form or another for decades and have already made inroads into journalism during elections. 2023 will be the year they become a source for other types of stories, simply because there’s now too much activity in the crowd forecasting world to ignore. For almost any question you can think of, there are online crowds making predictions. And if journalists do think of a question that isn’t yet being forecasted, there are platforms where they can pose it themselves.
For example, here are a few forecasts available as of this writing that speak to Twitter’s future:
- Will Twitter go bankrupt in 2023? The forecasters at Good Judgment…
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